Average Revenue Per User Decay Detected at Pulse Metrics — Standwick Report H-0-Fh
Severity Score
28.5/100
Trend Direction
→ Stable
⚠️ Primary Risk Signal
Average Revenue Per User Decay
🧠 Root Cause Hypothesis
Average revenue per user is compressing, likely due to mix shift toward lower-tier plans or discounting pressure. This matters now because ARPU decay is a leading indicator of pricing power erosion — customers are telling you, through their plan choices, that your premium tiers are not compelling enough.
Estimated monthly revenue at risk
10.7%
🎯 Highest Leverage Fix
Investigate what your plan mix is telling you. ARPU decay typically means customers are self-selecting into lower tiers because the premium tier's value proposition is not landing. Do not respond by adding features to the premium tier — respond by making the existing premium value impossible to ignore during the upgrade decision.
⚡ If Ignored
If conditions remain stable, severity is projected to stay near 28.5 over the next 7 days. Impact remains approximately 10.7%. While not deteriorating, stable risk is not reduced risk — the underlying vulnerability persists.
🔍 Signal Attribution
Risk is concentrated: Average Revenue Per User Decay accounts for 57% of total severity. Fixing this single signal would significantly reduce overall risk.
📈 Scenario Projections
If nothing changes — projected severity: 28.5
If conditions remain stable, severity is projected to stay near 28.5 over the next 7 days. Impact remains approximately 10.7%. While not deteriorating, stable risk is not reduced risk — the underlying vulnerability persists.
If you act now — target: 14.8
If the highest-leverage fix is implemented within 14 days, initial results are projected to appear within 28 days, with full recovery to a severity of approximately 15 within 59 days. Estimated impact would decline from 10.7% to approximately 6.0%. Note: approximately 5.7 points of severity may be structural and resistant to this single intervention — additional measures may be needed for full risk resolution.
If you wait — severity compounds to: 32.8
If action is delayed by 30 days, severity is projected to compound from 28.5 to approximately 33. Impact would grow from 10.7% to 12.1%. Recovery from this elevated level would take approximately 88 days — 29 days longer than if action is taken now. The same intervention would only reduce severity to approximately 17, leaving more residual risk than early action would.
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